Switzerland: El Niño is expected to strengthen further before reaching its peak in December, potentially becoming one of the strongest events recorded since at least 1950, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said Thursday.
The UN weather agency warned that the climate pattern could bring above-average temperatures across much of the world while altering rainfall patterns and increasing the risks of droughts and floods in different regions.
Why is El Niño expected to become stronger?
The WMO said sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to reach record levels during October-November-December 2026. The forecast is based on assessments from 13 leading national and international meteorological centres.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Niño is already firmly established and strengthening rapidly. The agency forecasts an almost 100% probability that the phenomenon will continue through February 2027.
The temperature anomaly in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific rose from 1.6°C above normal in June to 2.5°C above normal in August. It is forecast to reach about 3.7°C above normal during October-November-December.
How could El Niño affect global weather?
El Niño occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become unusually warm, disrupting global wind, pressure and rainfall patterns. The phenomenon generally occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine and 12 months.
The WMO said the current event could intensify existing climate-related impacts, with some regions facing greater drought risks while others could experience heavier rainfall and flooding.
The agency said the ocean involved in the current El Niño is the warmest ever measured, providing more stored heat that can be released into the atmosphere.
The projected Pacific temperature anomaly would surpass the previous record of 2.6°C recorded during the 2015-2016 El Niño. The previous event contributed to exceptionally high global temperatures, with 2024 becoming the warmest year on record at the time.