Author: Shakeel Akhtar

Shakeel Akhtar

Shakeel Akhtar is a geopolitical analyst and writer based in Oslo, Norway. His work focuses on global power shifts, strategic behavior of states, and their implications for regional security, with particular emphasis on Pakistan’s defence posture and strategic maturity.

A few weeks ago, I wrote that the State, much like the human brain, has its own amygdala-a constant instinct of survival that remains alert to anything it perceives as a threat to its existence. That instinct is natural. Every State must protect its sovereignty, stability and continuity. But there comes a point when the instinct to preserve the existing structure becomes so dominant that the State begins to confuse its own survival with the preservation of everything that already exists within it. When a boat begins to sink, the answer is not to protect every piece of cargo simply…

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A language of a leader can destroy not only the leader himself, but the standing of an entire country. That is the danger in the increasingly aggressive language coming from New Delhi toward Pakistan, particularly when political retaliation is linked to something as fundamental as water. A statement attributed to Prime Minister Narendra Modi-framed in the language of choosing between bread and a bullet-may satisfy a political audience for a moment, but when such rhetoric is directed at a neighbouring population of more than two hundred million people, it raises a far more disturbing question: what happens when political anger…

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Pakistan’s Direction – Beyond the Politics We See There is a question that deserves consideration whenever a political leader seeks power in Pakistan: how much of the country’s future can actually be determined by the government in Islamabad, and how much is shaped by circumstances beyond its borders? This is not a question about whether elections or political institutions matter. They do. It is a question about the environment in which every government operates. A government can change through an election, while the strategic interests of other states can change without any connection to Pakistan’s electoral calendar. International politics is…

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 A Moment for Reflection The tragic loss of newborn lives in the PIMS fire has touched the conscience of the entire nation. Fourteen families have suffered an irreparable loss, while the government has ordered an inquiry into the circumstances of the incident, including fire safety, emergency arrangements and the institutional response. The inquiry must establish the facts and identify the lessons that can prevent such a tragedy from being repeated. For a responsible state, however, a tragedy involving its citizens carries a responsibility beyond mourning. It provides an opportunity to examine systems, identify vulnerabilities and ensure that preventable risks are…

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For some time now, Pakistan’s public conversation has once again been dominated by speculation. Every development produces a new prediction, every silence invites another interpretation, and every political possibility is discussed as though it were already a certainty. Much of the national conversation has become focused on what may happen next in the political arena, while a much more important question is gradually being pushed into the background: what should Pakistan itself be doing at this moment? That question deserves our attention. Political circumstances change, governments change, leaders rise and fall, and political parties pass through periods of strength and…

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We often discover the value of freedom only when we imagine its absence. A door that we can open, a road we can travel, a country we can return to, a voice with which we can disagree-these ordinary privileges rarely announce themselves as blessings. They become visible when they are taken away. Listening last week, thousands of miles from Pakistan, to the grievances, frustrations and concerns of people from different segments of our society, I found myself thinking beyond the complaints themselves. I began asking a more fundamental question: what does freedom mean to a human being who has truly…

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Someone will call the Makkah agreement a piece of paper. Someone else will argue that it contains no magic, and that no treaty can guarantee what states will actually do when the real test arrives. There is logic in that argument. An agreement is, after all, written on paper. But so is NATO’s founding treaty. So are defence treaties, constitutions and the agreements that have shaped the international order for generations. Paper is fragile. States are not. The mistake is to judge an agreement only by the paper on which it is written, rather than by the strategic decision of…

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The most difficult truths do not hide from nations. They stand in front of them every day. We simply become so accustomed to our own reflections that we stop asking what the mirror is trying to show us. An anniversary is not merely a date on a calendar. It is an invitation to examine whether time has made us wiser or only more certain of what we already believed. The constitutional changes of 5 August 2019 transformed the political landscape and deepened an already entrenched divide over Jammu and Kashmir. Since then, each anniversary has brought familiar statements, familiar headlines…

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Two Pakistanis stand on opposite sides of the same number painted on a road. From one direction, it looks like a 6; from the other, it looks like a 9. Both are looking at the same mark, yet each sees something different. That simple image carries an uncomfortable lesson for Pakistan. We can spend hours, days and sometimes years arguing about which interpretation is correct, while overlooking the condition of the road on which we are standing. Perhaps that is where our national conversation needs to change. We have become accustomed to debating perspectives, personalities and political loyalties. We argue…

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Understanding the New Instruments of Global Power The language of international diplomacy has changed. Military alliances are no longer the only means through which states pursue strategic objectives. Economic sanctions, technology restrictions, financial systems, cyber capabilities, supply-chain controls, intelligence cooperation, strategic communications, and control over critical resources have become powerful instruments of influence. Together, these tools have expanded the practice of what international relations scholars describe as coercive diplomacy-the use of pressure, deterrence, and leverage to influence the decisions of other states without necessarily resorting to full-scale war. This transformation is reshaping the international system. Decisions taken in Washington, Beijing,…

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