BEIRUT: The United States must exert direct pressure on Israel to alter its military and political approach toward Lebanon, analyst Rami Khouri said, arguing that any lasting regional de-escalation will depend on Washington forcing policy changes in Tel Aviv.
Khouri’s remarks come in the context of a recently signed US-Iran peace agreement, which includes provisions for ending hostilities across multiple regional fronts, including Lebanon, and calls for broader steps toward military de-escalation.
According to Khouri, Israel may consider a limited or symbolic withdrawal of its forces from southern Lebanon following the US-Iran understanding. However, he cautioned that such moves would not represent a meaningful policy shift unless they are accompanied by sustained US diplomatic and political pressure.
He argued that Israel’s security posture and regional military actions are unlikely to change independently, even in the wake of diplomatic breakthroughs involving Washington and Tehran.
The analyst stressed that the United States remains the only actor capable of influencing Israeli strategic decisions at a structural level, particularly in relation to Lebanon, where cross-border tensions have remained high amid broader regional instability.
The US-Iran agreement, endorsed earlier this week, outlines a phased ceasefire framework, maritime de-escalation measures, and the opening of negotiations on nuclear and sanctions-related issues. It also references ending military operations linked to the wider regional conflict, including Lebanon.
Despite these provisions, observers have noted that implementation remains uncertain, with key regional actors yet to fully align their policies with the agreement’s framework.
Khouri’s comments reflect broader debate among analysts over whether diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran can translate into concrete shifts on the ground, particularly in areas where Israeli military operations have continued despite international pressure.
The situation in southern Lebanon remains volatile, with intermittent cross-border incidents and ongoing concerns over escalation despite parallel diplomatic efforts.
Whether the US will actively condition its support for Israel on policy adjustments related to Lebanon remains a central question in assessing the durability of the current diplomatic opening.