The Indian rupee is expected to open largely unchanged on Wednesday, confined within a tight trading band as mild weakness in other Asian currencies weighed on sentiment, while consistent intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) acted as a backstop for the currency.
According to one-month non-deliverable forwards, the rupee is forecast to trade around 90.66–90.70 against the U.S. dollar, close to its previous session’s close of 90.6725. The RBI has been actively intervening in the forex market, buying dollars at around 90.70–90.80 levels to absorb excess demand and prevent the rupee from sliding toward the psychologically sensitive 91 mark, traders said.
The broader backdrop saw other Asian currencies soften as the U.S. dollar strengthened, partly driven by comments from Federal Reserve officials suggesting policy stability amid ongoing inflation concerns. Market participants currently anticipate two rate cuts from the Fed in 2026, potentially starting in June, though traders await the release of minutes from the central bank’s most recent meeting for further clues on monetary policy direction.
Analysts say the rupee’s near-term movements will continue to reflect a delicate balance between external currency pressures and RBI’s defensive posture, with any breakthrough above key resistance levels likely to test the central bank’s readiness to support the currency further.