How Severe Is the Rainfall Deficit?
India has recorded its driest June in 12 years and the fifth-driest June since nationwide rainfall records began in 1901, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), raising concerns over agricultural output and food production.
The IMD said rainfall during June was significantly below expectations, with the country receiving 39.8% less rainfall than forecast. The department has also predicted below-normal rainfall for July, the peak month of the southwest monsoon.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said only 1905, 1926, 2009 and 2014 recorded drier Junes than this year.
How Has Agriculture Been Affected?
Government data shows farmers had sown summer crops across 18.27 million hectares by June 30, compared with 23.65 million hectares during the same period last year—a decline of nearly 23%.
Rice cultivation has been hit particularly hard, with sowing falling by around 25% to 2.58 million hectares from 3.44 million hectares a year earlier.
India’s major summer crops—including rice, pulses, coarse cereals, oilseeds, cotton, sugarcane and jute—depend heavily on the southwest monsoon, which normally accounts for around 70% of the country’s annual rainfall. Nearly half of India’s cultivated farmland also lacks assured irrigation, making timely monsoon rains critical for agricultural production.
What Caused the Delay?
The southwest monsoon reached the southern state of Kerala three days later than usual this year, while its advance across western India slowed for nearly two weeks. The delay postponed field preparation and crop planting across several farming regions.
Experts warn that weaker rainfall could also reduce domestic oilseed production, increasing India’s reliance on imported edible oils.
What Is the Government’s Response?
Despite the slow start, authorities say the overall impact on harvests remains uncertain as the monsoon season continues until September, allowing time for rainfall to recover.
India also entered the season with record rice reserves. Government data shows rice stocks stood at 39.7 million tonnes on July 1, almost three times the official buffer requirement of 13.5 million tonnes. An additional 29.8 million tonnes is expected after procured paddy is milled.
Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said the government has identified 315 districts vulnerable to below-normal rainfall and prepared contingency plans, including promoting short-duration crops, less water-intensive varieties and improved water conservation measures.
“We are preparing in advance, not waiting for a crisis,” Chouhan said, adding that there was no immediate threat to India’s food security due to comfortable buffer stocks of rice and wheat.