Pakistan’s central bank governor says the country’s economy is set for a broader and stronger recovery than projected by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), highlighting resilience in key sectors despite recent economic pressures.
State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmad said the central bank now expects the economy to grow between 3.75% and 4.75% in the fiscal year 2026, a range higher than its previous forecast and more optimistic than the IMF’s outlook. He attributed the divergence to differences in timing and methodology used in economic assessments, including flood impacts.
The governor pointed to strong performance in agriculture and a 6% increase in large‑scale manufacturing as evidence of a broad‑based recovery across the economy, even as exports fell and the trade deficit widened earlier in the year. He said improved financial conditions, following large policy rate cuts since mid‑2024, are supporting growth while maintaining price stability.
Ahmad also said the current account deficit is expected to remain modest, helped by robust remittance inflows and efforts to boost foreign exchange reserves. Pakistan is exploring issuances such as yuan‑denominated panda bonds to diversify external financing and strengthen reserves.
Despite the more upbeat outlook, the central bank governor stressed that structural reforms remain essential to sustain growth and enhance productivity over the longer term.
Pakistan is navigating these developments under a $7 billion IMF program designed to stabilize the economy after a balance‑of‑payments crisis.