Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026, citing lower-than-expected inventories in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.
The U.S. investment bank now expects Brent crude to average $60 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to reach $56 per barrel in Q4 2026, up $6 from previous projections. The revisions reflect tighter global supply relative to demand, driven by inventory shortfalls.
Despite the near-term increase, Goldman Sachs anticipates a global oil surplus for 2026 unless there are major geopolitical disruptions, including potential changes in Iranian output. For the full year, the bank projects Brent and WTI will average $64 and $60 per barrel, respectively.
Goldman also highlighted risks that could pull prices lower. Eased sanctions on Iran or Russia could increase supply, potentially reducing Brent by $5 and WTI by $8 in Q4 2026.
Looking ahead to 2027, the bank expects oil prices to rise, with Brent averaging $65 and WTI $61, and possibly reaching $70 and $66 by year-end, assuming sustained demand and slower supply growth.
OPEC+ is expected to gradually increase production from the second quarter of 2026 as inventories remain below typical buffers, according to Goldman’s analysis.